What reasons will affect the price of rubber?
1. International supply and demand of natural rubber:
As a result, the major natural rubber producing countries in the world are Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, China, Vietnam and India. Therefore, China and India have a large amount of their own rubber, and the production of natural rubber in Vietnam has already established a natural rubber regional sales alliance (ITRCo) in 2002. ), uniformly implement the price-limiting price protection measures (guaranteed price), which cannot be compared with the above three. Therefore, the main exporters of natural rubber are Thailand, South Korea and Malaysia. 80 cents/kg). And Vietnam and Sri Lanka are also actively preparing to join the organization. The countries and regions with the largest global natural rubber consumption are the United States, China, Western Europe and Japan. Among them, China’s own natural rubber scale meets the requirements of natural rubber between the major exporters and major importers of natural rubber. The volume of supply and demand can meet the supplementary domestic consumption, and the rest needs to be imported. The United States, Western Europe and Japan are completely dependent on imports. The relationship plays a fundamental role in the price of natural rubber, and it is also a crucial influence.
2. Domestic supply and demand of natural rubber:
The domestically produced natural rubber has always been in short supply. Therefore, before the natural rubber imports are completely liberalized, the supply of domestic natural rubber has a certain impact on the long-term natural rubber prices.However, when someone joins the WTO, how the government fulfills its WTO commitments and adjusts its import and export policies has become an important factor that affects the import and export situation of natural rubber and even the price changes of natural rubber. Therefore, the "two certificates" management is applied to the import of natural rubber. The processing of incoming materials and the double-restricted part are called tax reduction and exemption parts. The customs tracks the natural rubber imported in these two ways and monitors its flow and use. The trading part can enter the circulation market and participate in the delivery of the futures market. Since 2004, the state has abolished the management of natural rubber substitution. To gradually advance the realization of WTO commitments, the state may adjust the above regulations.
3. The international and domestic economic environment:
As an important industrial raw material, the price of Tianji Rubber is closely related to the international and domestic economic environment. When the economic environment is improving, the market needs to develop and the demand is sufficient. At this time, the demand for Tianji Rubber will increase, which will promote its price increase. On the contrary, when the economic environment is turning bad, the market is pessimistic and the demand is insufficient. At this time, the demand for natural rubber will decrease and gradually decrease. The 1997 Asian financial crisis. Therefore, the international and domestic economic environment will affect the long-term trend of natural rubber prices.
4. the development of the main adhesive industry:
The largest consumption of natural rubber is the automobile industry (about 65% of the total consumption of natural rubber), and the development of the automobile industry has driven the progress of the tire manufacturing industry. Therefore, how the development of the automobile industry and related tire industries will affect the price of natural rubber. Especially in the automotive industry, its development is directly related to the output of tires, which affects the global demand and price of natural rubber. After the automobile industries in Europe, America, Japan and other countries have entered a stable development, the demand for natural rubber is relatively stable. In comparison, China's automobile industry has just started, and there is much room for future development. Therefore, the impact of domestic natural rubber prices on the development of the automobile industry and tire industry will be strengthened.
5.Production and application of synthetic rubber
The continuous improvement of rubber products through the process, the substitution of raw materials has also changed, and many products have already used synthetic rubber to replace natural rubber. When the supply of rubber is tight or the price rises that day, many manufacturers will choose to use synthetic rubber. Among them, the complementarity will become stronger and stronger. At the same time, since synthetic rubber belongs to petrochemical products, its price is affected by its upstream products-petroleum, butadiene. In fact, the price of oil has been constantly changing. Therefore, the fluctuation of oil price will also affect the price of natural rubber by affecting the price of synthetic rubber.